Mains Syllabus: GS II - Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.
Why in the News?
The conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating to higher level of war zone.
What is the history of Israel – Iran Conflict?
Early US Iran Cooperation – In 1953, US helped the overthrow of Iranian popular Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh restoring Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi to Power.
Iran US Nuclear Cooperation – In 1957, Iran US nuclear deal was signed and US provided nuclear reactors and uranium enrichment facility to Iran.
In 1970, Iran ratified Non-proliferation treaty , giving it the right to civil nuclear programme.
Government Change in Iran – In 1979, Iran’s Islamic Revolution forced shah to flee and upended ties with US and other major powers.
US and Iraq – In 1984, US resorted it’s ties with Iraq and supported it in it’s war against Iran.
Iran Russia Nuclear Support – In 1995, Russia agreed to support Iran in building nuclear reactor.
Nuclear Problem – In 2002, western intelligence services revealed the secret uranium enrichment facility of Iran.
Cyber Attack on Iran Nuclear Facility – In 2010, The Stuxnet computer virus , widely believed to be a joint US-Israeli creation, disrupted and destroyed Iranian centrifuges.
Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement – In 2015, World powers and Iran announced a long term comprehensive agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.
Withdrawal of US – In 2018, U.S. withdrew from the Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers.
Israel attack on Iran – In 2020, alleged Israel attacks against Iran’s nuclear program were stepped up and Iran’s top nuclear scientist and commanders of Iranian revolutionary guard ware assassinated.
Iran Upgrades Uranium Enrichment – In 2021, Iran began enriching Uranium upto 60% level, it’s highest purity ever and a technical step from weapons grade levels of 90%.
Hamas Attack on Israel – In 2023, Iran supported the Hamas attack on Israel from Gaza strip.
Escalated Attacks – In 2024, Iran and Israel have started directly attacking each others infrastructures and territories.
Israel launched 'Operation Rising Lion' against Iran and Iran launched 'Operation True Promise 3' in retaliation.
What are the significances of Israel and Iran to India?
Significance of West Asia - West Asia is not just the source of 40% of its remittances but also 54% of oil imports and the region accounts for over $170 billion in trade.
Israel Defence Partner - India’s defence imports from Israel have soared in the past decade, from about $5.6 million in 2015 to $128 million presently.
Iran Energy Supplier – Though trade with Iran dropped from about $14 billion in 2017 to $1.4 billion last year, It is still an important energy supplier to India.
Indian Diaspora – There are about 10000 Indians in Israel and 25000 to 30000 in Iran as students and working professionals.
Connectivity - India’s connectivity plans for the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, International North-South Transport Corridor depends on Israel and Iran respectively.
What are the impacts of the conflict on India?
Declining Trade - India has had declining levels of trade with both Iran and Israel in the last few years due to tensions in the region.
Decline in Israel Trade - Tensions in the Gulf region post-attacks as well as Israeli operations on Gaza have also sent trade with Israel down from $11 billion in 2022 to $3.75 billion last year.
Decline in Iran Trade - India’s imports from Iran dropped to $441 million in FY2025, down from $625 million the previous year and exporters are increasingly cautious and some are holding back shipments due to payment delays and heightened risks.
Trade Route Disruptions – The Tensions in the region will affect the trade through the red sea , particularly the Strait of Hormuz.
Impact on Energy Security – About 60–65% of India’s crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route bordered by Iran.
Disruption in Strait Hormuz, could sharply increase oil and LNG prices, given that 40-50% of India’s energy imports come through the area.
Impact on Connectivity Plans - Prolonged Israel-Iran conflict will affect India’s connectivity plans for the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, International North-South Transport Corridor.
Spiraling Economic Effect – The rise in Shipping costs, security, and insurance premiums lead to more costly imports, less competitive exports, and inflation.
What are the geopolitical challenges for New Delhi?
Criticism of US and allies - The U.S. and G-7 countries have largely backed Israel strikes as its “right to defend itself”.
Involvement of Pakistan - The U.S. may ask Pakistan for support in a possible operation in Iran, from logistics to overflight and refuelling to intelligence sharing, will make India’s path more difficult.
Global South Sympathizes Iran - The Global South, which has been very critical of Israel’s war in Gaza, has also expressed sympathies with Iran during the current crisis.
Iran in BRICS – Since Iran joined the BRICS and has the support of BRICS members, India will face a harder challenge in separating itself from any statement that is issued there.
Gulf Challenge - There’s also the possible cost to India’s ties with the Gulf region that has to be factored in.
What were the reactions of India?
Expressed Concerns – India has shared It’s concern and emphasised the need for early restoration of peace and stability in the region.
Dialogue with Iran – Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar expressed deep concern of the international community at the turn of events,” and urged against retaliation and for diplomacy.
Balanced Approach - The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) played safe, calling for dialogue and diplomacy while making no criticism of Israel for launching the strikes.
Disassociation from SCO Statement - India also disassociated from a statement of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which includes China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Belarus and Central Asian states, that had condemned Israel’s “aggression”.
Abstention from UN Resolution - India had abstained in a UN resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza, even when Every other member of BRICS, SCO and SAARC and even all G-7 members minus the U.S. had voted in favour of the resolution.
Operation Sindu – It was launched to evacuate Indian citizens from conflict-affected regions of Iran and Israel.
What lies ahead?
Dealing with the Israel-Iran conflict has always meant a tricky tightrope balance for New Delhi, given its strong ties with both countries.
India can actively advocate for diplomacy and dialogue, urging both parties to de-escalate and return to negotiations.
To mitigate risks from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and trade with Iran, India can accelerate diversification of its energy sources and trade routes.
India can leveraging its upcoming G20 presidency and leadership within the Quad, India could initiate a “West Asia Stability Dialogue” — a Track II peace process involving the Arab League, the EU, Iran, and Israel under one neutral platform.
