Bharat Forecast System

Prelims: Current events of national and international importance.

Why in News?

Recently India Meteorological Department (IMD) is set to operationalise the Bharat Forecast System (BFS) during the 2025 monsoon season.

Bharat Forecast System - It is India’s first indigenously built high-resolution deterministic weather model.

Deterministic models provide a single forecast for a given set of initial conditions, for a specific location and time.

Developed By - The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune under Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
It is in development and testing since 2002.
It is now officially adopted for operational use by IMD in 2025.

Current IMD models

Coupled Forecast System (CFS) – It is developed initially by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in the US.
It was modified under the Monsoon Mission to create a model specifically for seasonal monsoon prediction over the Indian region.
Global Forecast System (GFS) – It is also a coupled model, includes ocean-atmosphere interactions.
Both models operate at 12 km × 12 km resolution (i.e., one forecast per 144 sq. km).

Key Features

Forecast resolution - 6 km × 6 km (from earlier 12 km × 12 km).
Forecast levels - Now accurate to panchayat level (a few villages), vs earlier block level.
Forecast range:
- Short-term - 3 days ahead
- Medium-term - 7 days ahead
- Long-term forecasts remain largely unchanged as with previous model.
Technological advancements – It uses Triangular-Cubic Octahedral (TCO) grid structure which,
- Focuses higher resolution over tropical regions like India.
- More accurate in volatile weather zones.

TCO grid, divides the globe into triangular cells, resulting in a higher resolution over tropical regions compared to the poles.

Supercomputing support - To increase accuracy of prediction the High-Performance Computing (HPC) systems such as Arka, Arunika, and AI/ML unit were used.

Significance

BFS significantly improves early warnings for,
- Heavy rainfall
- Cyclones
- Localized climate variations
It empowers farmers, administrators, and local bodies with precise weather alerts.
It is aligned with Atmanirbhar Bharat with fully indigenous technology and effort.
Limitation - BFS does not improve forecasts for sudden severe thunderstorms.

India is the only country to provide operational weather forecasts at 6 km × 6 km resolution.

Reference