Prelims: Current events of national and international importance.
Why in News?
Recently India Meteorological Department (IMD) is set to operationalise the Bharat Forecast System (BFS) during the 2025 monsoon season.
- Bharat Forecast System - It is India’s first indigenously built high-resolution deterministic weather model.
Deterministic models provide a single forecast for a given set of initial conditions, for a specific location and time.
- Developed By - The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune under Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).
- It is in development and testing since 2002.
- It is now officially adopted for operational use by IMD in 2025.
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Current IMD models
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- Coupled Forecast System (CFS) – It is developed initially by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in the US.
- It was modified under the Monsoon Mission to create a model specifically for seasonal monsoon prediction over the Indian region.
- Global Forecast System (GFS) – It is also a coupled model, includes ocean-atmosphere interactions.
- Both models operate at 12 km × 12 km resolution (i.e., one forecast per 144 sq. km).
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Key Features
- Forecast resolution - 6 km × 6 km (from earlier 12 km × 12 km).
- Forecast levels - Now accurate to panchayat level (a few villages), vs earlier block level.
- Forecast range:
- Short-term - 3 days ahead
- Medium-term - 7 days ahead
- Long-term forecasts remain largely unchanged as with previous model.
- Technological advancements – It uses Triangular-Cubic Octahedral (TCO) grid structure which,
- Focuses higher resolution over tropical regions like India.
- More accurate in volatile weather zones.
TCO grid, divides the globe into triangular cells, resulting in a higher resolution over tropical regions compared to the poles.
- Supercomputing support - To increase accuracy of prediction the High-Performance Computing (HPC) systems such as Arka, Arunika, and AI/ML unit were used.
Significance
- BFS significantly improves early warnings for,
- Heavy rainfall
- Cyclones
- Localized climate variations
- It empowers farmers, administrators, and local bodies with precise weather alerts.
- It is aligned with Atmanirbhar Bharat with fully indigenous technology and effort.
- Limitation - BFS does not improve forecasts for sudden severe thunderstorms.
India is the only country to provide operational weather forecasts at 6 km × 6 km resolution.
Reference
The Hindu| IMD to receive high resolution Bharat Forecast System
