Syrian Civil War - Factors at Play

What is the issue?

Ten years since the outbreak of the crisis in Syria, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad seems to have won the civil war.
Here is an overview of the ongoing transformations and the future course of the conflicts and relationships.

How has the territorial control transformed?

In 2015, before the Russian intervention, Mr. Assad’s area of influence had shrunken to the largely Alawite-populated region stretching from Damascus to the Mediterranean coast.
But, now, his troops control most of Syria, except Idlib and the Kurdish territories.
The Kurds enjoy autonomy in the border region with Turkey, but have bought a delicate peace with Damascus.
In effect,the only parts of the country that lie outside the sovereignty of the Syrian government are:
1. Idlib, controlled by jihadists and rebels
2. some towns on the border that are held by pro-Turkey militias

What effect has this created?

Mr. Assad’s victory seems to have locked Syria in a prolonged geopolitical contest.
The Syrian army turned around the war with help from Russia, Iran and several Iran-backed Shia militias, including the Lebanese Hezbollah.
They are all still in Syria, which shares a border with Israel.
This means the civil war has intensified the Iran-Israel conflict.

Has Israel's approach to the crisis changed?

When the Syrian crisis unfolded in 2011-12, Israel took a ‘wait and watch’ approach.

This was primarily because it preferred a stable regime in Damascus to the post-revolutionary chaos.
So, despite the absence of a formal peace treaty, the Israeli-Syrian border has been largely uneventful since the 1970s.
But when Iran deployed militias and military assets in Syria in defence of Mr. Assad, Israel changed it approach.
Also, across Israel’s northern border, the Hezbollah has already established a formidable presence.
Both Israel’s 1982-2000 occupation of southern Lebanon and the 2006 war on Lebanon were resisted by Hezbollah.
For its part, Israel would not like to have more Iran-backed Shia militias across the GolanHeights.
So, it captured Golan Heights from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War.
This has been the de facto border between the two countries ever since.
With current transformations in the power play, Israel changed its tactics.

What is Israel's changing tactics?

It first started helping anti-Assad rebels in the Golan region by reportedly providing cash and medical aid.
The plan was to create a buffer between the Golan Heights and the rest of Syria.
This was done so that the pro-Iran militias could be stopped from coming face-to-face with Israeli troops.
Later, after the tides turned in the civil war and Iran deepened its presence in Syria, Israel started bombing Iranian positions inside Syria.
Since September 2015, the Syrian air space has practically been controlled by the Russians.
But Russia looked away when Israel stepped up its bombings.
Israel too has been careful not to hit Russian positions in the overcrowded Syrian battlefield.

In this line, in the last 3 years (back from 2020), Israel has carried out dozens of aerial attacks in Syria.
In retaliation, Syria has often fired anti-aircraft missiles.

What is Iran's role?

For the Syrian government, support from Iran was a lifeline.
While Russia provided air power in the civil war, Iran supplied ground troops.
So, Mr. Assad did nothing to prevent the sprawling Iranian influence in his country despite Israeli attacks.
On the other hand, Iran’s response to Israeli attacks has been only to deepen its own footprints.
As a result, Syria has emerged as a new theatre in the Israel-Iran geopolitical contest in West Asia, which could outlive the Syrian civil war.
Already, the conflict has spilled from Syria into the Mediterranean and Red Sea waters where both sides target each other’s ships.
In all, the Israel-Iran contest is set to intensify further with -
- Israel determined to contain Iran’s growing influence in the region
- the U.S. and other Western powers reaching out to Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal which could leave it more powerful economically

Source: The Hindu

Related article: Israel-Syria Relations