Why in news?
Russian Foreign Minister’s comment, after receiving a written response from Washington to Moscow’s security demands, that Russia doesn’t want wars raises hopes of a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis.
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What is the scope for diplomacy in resolving Ukraine crisis?
- A flurry of diplomatic activities were aimed at de-escalating the situation.
- The U.S.’s written response to Russia, could set the stage for further diplomatic talks in the coming weeks.
- French President Emmanuel Macron has held talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
- France and Germany are reportedly trying to revive the stalled Minsk process that sought to find a peaceful solution to Ukraine’s internal conflict between Kiev and the Russia-backed separatists.
What did Russia gain from the crisis?
- There is a strong case for de-escalation as Mr. Putin has already achieved many things, without a shot being fired.
- He has got the Western leadership to talk to him over the contested issue of NATO’s expansion, which Russia has long been complaining about.
- Practically nobody is threatening to punish Russia for the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s continued support for separatists inside Ukraine.
- The U.S. has said it is open to discuss some of Russia’s security concerns, including missile deployments in Eastern Europe and military exercises in sensitive regions.
What concerns are still lingering?
- Mr. Putin has said the U.S. response does not address Russia’s core security concerns.
- Russia, which has mobilised thousands of troops on its border with Ukraine, in Belarus in Ukraine’s north and in Transnistria (in its south-west, has a clear military advantage.
- Fears of a military conflict are still there.
What lies ahead?
- Russia should accept the U.S. proposals, de-escalate the crisis around Ukraine and opt for more dialogue on critical issues, including NATO’s eastward expansion.
- Russia might be in a position to overrun Ukraine militarily, but what comes next in Europe’s largest country is as unpredictable as it can get.
- The post-9/11 military adventures of the U.S. are a lesson that great powers could clinch swift victories against weaker countries but could fail miserably in sustaining those victories.
- Russia should not walk into the same mistake and thereby push Europe back into the darker days of the Cold War.
Reference
- https://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/risky-bets/article38351275.ece
