Super El Nino and India’s Monsoon

Why in News?

Recently, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has warned that the ongoing El Niño could intensify into a super El Niño, raising concerns over India’s monsoon performance.

ENSO (El Nino–Southern Oscillation) cycle

• It is a natural, recurring climate pattern characterized by fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• It significantly alters global weather, temperatures, and rainfall.

El Nino

• El Nino - El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. 
• Super El Nino – Exceptionally strong warming episodes with adverse climatic impacts.

• Process – Weak trade winds fail to push warm water west, causing the eastern Pacific to heat up and warmer water further weakens winds, amplifying El Nino.
• Climate Change – A warmer baseline ocean adds extra heat, making recent events stronger than earlier ones.
• Past events – Crossed the 2° threshold — 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 (extreme draughts).

Impact on India’s Monsoon

• Rainfall Deficit – About 15 El Nino years since 1950 saw below‑normal monsoon;
• Distribution Issues – Delayed onset, prolonged dry spells, and uneven rainfall more damaging than overall reduction.
• Agriculture Economy – Deficient monsoon affects food security, crop yields, and fiscal planning.
• El Nino yearly cycle — Developing in spring, peaking in winter, and fading by next spring.
• Its impact on India’s monsoon is felt mainly July–September, not June., a dry June (35% deficit) doesn’t guarantee monsoon failure.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Role – Positive IOD can offset El Nino drying. Current forecasts suggest weak IOD, limiting buffering capacity.

Global Impact

• Extreme Events – Past super El Ninos linked to droughts in Australia, forest fires in Indonesia, coral bleaching and record global temperatures.
• Cyclones – Alters tropical cyclone distribution, suppresses Atlantic hurricanes but increases Pacific typhoons.

Reference

Super El Nino | The Hindu