Prelims: Current events of national and international importance | Geography
Why in News?
Recently, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned a rapidly intensifying Super El Niño, hotter than 1997‑98, will combine with positive IOD (Aug–Oct 2026), driving extreme global climate impacts.
Super El Niño 2026
- Declared – By National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (U.S.).
- Sea Surface Temperatures – Already above 2.9°C anomalies, hotter than 1997‑98 Super El Niño.
- Forecast – Could be the strongest since the 1876‑78 El Niño, which caused famines worldwide.
- Core Driver – Subsurface warming in top 500 m of Equatorial Pacific, peaking 8°C above normal.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
- Positive Phase – Western Indian Ocean warmer, eastern cooler.
- Impact – Increases rainfall over western Indian Ocean, reduces rainfall in eastern parts.
- India’s Monsoon – Positive IOD can partly offset El Niño’s suppression of rainfall.
Regional Impacts
- India – Mixed monsoon impacts due to El Niño suppression and IOD support.
- Indonesia – Dry sinking air, reduced rainfall.
- North America – Jet stream shifts, altered storm tracks.
- Timing – Impacts expected between August–October 2026, earlier than usual El Niño peaks (Nov–Feb).
- Global Impacts– Extreme heat, droughts, floods, wildfire risks, coral bleaching, marine heatwaves.
Reference
Down to Earth | El Nino
