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Arctic Thaw – Climate Crisis, Geopolitical Competition, and India’s Strategic Interests

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December 30, 2025

Mains: GS I – Geography

Why in News?

The Arctic region is undergoing unprecedented environmental transformation due to rapid climate change.

What is the issue?

  • Highest surface air temperature – According to the Arctic Report Card 2025 published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Arctic recorded the highest surface air temperatures in the last 125 years.
  • The past ten years have been the warmest decade ever recorded in the Arctic region.
  • Artic amplification – Arctic warming is occurring at more than twice the global average rate, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.
  • Arctic Climate Crisis Shrinking glaciers, rising ocean temperatures, and declining sea ice are key indicators of Arctic warming.
  • The oldest and thickest Arctic sea ice has declined by more than 95%  since the 1980s.
  • March 2025 recorded the lowest maximum sea ice extent in the 47-year satellite observation record.
  • June snow cover in the Arctic is now nearly 50% of what it was in the 1960s.
  • Reduced snow and ice cover lowers the region’s albedo, leading to greater absorption of solar radiation.
  • This process creates a positive feedback loop that accelerates further warming.
  • Permafrost thaw releases iron, mercury, and toxic metals into rivers, a phenomenon described as “rusting rivers.”
  • These changes degrade freshwater quality and disrupt Arctic ecosystems and indigenous livelihoods.

What are the impacts and consequences of Artic Thaw?

  • Ecological Consequences of Arctic Warming – Arctic warming is reshaping terrestrial and marine ecosystems at an unprecedented pace.
  • Thawing permafrost destabilizes land surfaces and releases large quantities of greenhouse gases like methane.
  • The process of Atlantification is introducing warmer Atlantic waters into the Arctic Ocean.
  • Atlantification leads to increased ocean mixing, reduced sea ice formation, and altered circulation patterns.
  • Rising ocean temperatures have increased phytoplankton productivity and chlorophyll concentration.
  • While this may boost fisheries temporarily, it also disrupts established food chains.
  • Wildlife species such as polar bears, seals, and Arctic birds face habitat loss and food scarcity.
  • Indigenous communities experience threats to food security, traditional livelihoods, and cultural survival.
  • Impact on Indian Monsoon – Arctic changes are not regionally confined and have far-reaching global climatic consequences.
  • A 2024 study by India’s National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR) highlights Arctic influence on atmospheric circulation.
  • Arctic warming affects Rossby waves and jet stream patterns in the Northern Hemisphere.
  • These altered atmospheric patterns increase the unpredictability of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR).
  • Variability in monsoon rainfall directly affects Indian agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.
  • Therefore, Arctic climate stability is closely linked to India’s domestic climate resilience.

What are the importance of Artic region?

  • The Arctic as a Geopolitical Hotspot – The Arctic covers nearly 4 % of the Earth’s surface and connects North America, Europe, and Asia.
  • The region is governed primarily through the Arctic Council, which includes eight Arctic states.
  • These states are the United States, Canada, Russia, Norway, Denmark (Greenland), Iceland, Sweden, and Finland.
  • The Arctic is estimated to hold significant reserves of oil, natural gas, and critical minerals.
  • Melting ice is making these resources increasingly accessible for exploration and exploitation.
  • New maritime routes are emerging due to reduced ice cover.
  • These developments have transformed the Arctic into a centre of strategic competition.
  • Economic and Strategic Significance – The Northern Sea Route (NSR), also known as the Northeast Passage, connects the Pacific Ocean with the Atlantic Ocean.
  • Climate-induced ice retreat has made the NSR increasingly navigable for longer durations.
  • The NSR can reduce travel distance between Eastern Asia and Europe by nearly 40% compared to the Suez Canal route.
  • Reduced travel time lowers fuel costs, shipping duration, and carbon emissions.
  • Russia views the NSR as a strategic asset for economic development and geopolitical leverage.
  • Western sanctions on Russia have increased its reliance on Asian partners for NSR development.
  • Infrastructure development along the NSR requires massive investment in ports, ice-breakers, and satellite navigation systems.
  • China and Non-Arctic Actors in the Arctic – China declared itself a “near-Arctic state” in 2018.
  • It launched the Polar Silk Road as part of its Belt and Road Initiative.
  • China seeks access to Arctic shipping lanes, energy resources, and scientific influence.
  • Other non-Arctic states, including India, Japan, and South Korea, are increasing their Arctic engagement.
  • These countries advocate for the Arctic as a global commons accessible to all.
  • However, increasing militarisation and geopolitical fragmentation threaten Arctic cooperation.
  • Finland and Sweden joining NATO has further polarized Arctic geopolitics.

What is the India’s Arctic engagement?

  • Historical and Institutional Foundations India is a signatory to the Svalbard Treaty of 1920.
  • India launched its first Arctic scientific expedition in 2007.
  • The Himadri research station was established in Svalbard in 2008.
  • India obtained Observer status in the Arctic Council in 2013.
  • Scientific research has remained the cornerstone of India’s Arctic presence.
  • India released its Arctic Policy in 2022 to institutionalize its engagement.
  • India’s Arctic Policy 2022 – Six Pillars
    • Strengthening scientific research and international cooperation.
    • Climate and environmental protection.
    • Economic and human development.
    • Transportation and connectivity.
    • Governance and multilateral engagement.
    • National capacity building in polar sciences.
  • The policy reflects India’s balanced approach combining sustainability and strategic interests.
  • India’s Strategic Interests in the ArcticIndia seeks energy diversification and access to critical minerals through Arctic cooperation.
  • Since 2021, India has supported infrastructure development along Russia’s Northern Sea Route.
  • The Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor became operational in 2024.
  • This corridor reduces shipping time between India and Europe by nearly two weeks.
  • India can leverage its experience in the Himalayas and Antarctica for Arctic research.
  • Strengthening climate modelling and monsoon research is essential.
  • Diplomatic engagement with all Arctic states is necessary to safeguard India’s interests.
  • Cooperation between the “Third Pole” and the “North Pole” will shape the Arctic’s future.

What lies ahead?

  • The Arctic thaw represents both a global climate emergency and a geopolitical inflection point.
  • Environmental degradation in the Arctic has direct implications for global climate systems.
  • Economic opportunities are expanding alongside strategic rivalries.
  • India’s Arctic policy provides a comprehensive framework but requires sustained implementation.
  • Scientific leadership, climate diplomacy, and strategic partnerships will define India’s Arctic role.
  • A cooperative and rules-based Arctic order is essential for global climate stability.

Reference

The Indian Express| Artic Thaw

 

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