Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact

Why in News?

Recently, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a significant mutual defence pact.

What are the terms of the agreement?

• Collective defence – The official text released in Riyadh and Islamabad declares that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.”
• This principle of collective defence effectively commits each side to respond to threats to the other.
• Permanent mechanisms – The two countries will establish permanent coordination mechanisms, including a joint military committee, intelligence-sharing arrangements, and expanded training programmes.
• Pakistan has stationed military personnel in Saudi Arabia for decades.
• Informal to formal – The mutual defence agreement takes the partnership into a formal treaty framework from decades of informal military cooperation.
• Stance on nuclear programme – Saudi Arabia had reportedly provided generous financial assistance to Pakistan’s nuclear programme.
• The agreement does not spell out whether Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities extend to Saudi defence.
• Clear symbolism – Saudi Arabia is no longer satisfied with existing security ties and is letting Pakistan play a larger role in the Persian Gulf.

Why was the agreement signed now?

• Inaction from US – Qatar was a heavily defended ally of US and it came under Israeli attack without consequence.

Qatar is home to the Al-Udeid airbase, the largest U.S. military base in West Asia.

• In 2019, when Iran’s allies attacked Saudi oil installations, the U.S. looked away.
• Riyadh seems to have concluded that it cannot rely solely on U.S. security guarantees.
• Shifting focus of US – The U.S. doesn’t want to get entangled in West Asia’s conflicts any more as its strategic focus is shifting to East Asia.
• The Gaza war – The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack in Israel, and Israel’s devastating response in Gaza, derailed Saudi Arabia’s plans to normalise ties with Israel under the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords.
• Since then, Israel’s war in Gaza has spilled over into the region, deepening the insecurity of Gulf kingdoms.
• Threat from Houthi rebels – The Houthis in Yemen have also steadily expanded their military capabilities.
• Their missile and drone strikes had disrupted Saudi oil facilities and shipping in the Red Sea.
• While there is a tenuous ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis now, the Saudis continue to look at the Houthis as a challenge.
• The Saudis, the U.S. and Israel have repeatedly bombed Houthis, but they still remain a force in Yemen, controlling almost half of the country, including its capital Sanaa.

The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah (Partisans of God), are an Iranian-backed Shiite Muslim military and political movement in Yemen.

• Significance of Saudi – It is a Muslim-majority country, and has long experience in providing security services to the kingdom.
• Pakistan’s need – In return, Pakistan needs Saudi financial support to stabilise its battered economy.

What about West Asia’s security landscape?

• The plan of US – The U.S.’s pre-October 7 plan was to bring Israel and the Gulf kingdoms closer.
• But Israel’s attacks in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran and Qatar have alarmed Arab states.
• Demand of Saudi Arabia – Post-October 7, Riyadh has said it would normalise ties with Israel only if Tel Aviv commits itself to the creation of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 border.
• Israel’s position – Israel, on the other hand, says there won’t be a Palestinian state.
• This means that the further expansion of the Abraham Accords is in doubt.
• By turning to Pakistan, Saudi Arabia is signalling to both Washington and Tel Aviv that it is diversifying its security alliances.
• Potential risks – Pakistan could be dragged into Saudi Arabia’s regional rivalries with Iran or into the conflict in Yemen.
• For Saudi Arabia, the deal could entangle it in South Asian instability, particularly if tensions between India and Pakistan flare up again.
• The pact does not resolve Riyadh’s core vulnerabilities, such as Iranian missile strikes or Houthi drones.
• It provides a hedge at a time when America’s reliability is under doubt and Israel’s behaviour is destabilising the region.

How does India view the pact?

• Various complications – the Saudi-Pakistan defence pact introduces complications on multiple fronts.
• Strategic ties – Over the past decade, New Delhi has invested heavily in its relations with Riyadh, deepening energy ties, expanding trade, and securing cooperation on counter-terrorism.
• Roughly 2.6 million Indian expatriates work in the kingdom.
• Balancing the ties – India has also sought to balance these ties with its growing strategic partnership with Israel.
• But Indian policy in West Asia clearly has a pro-Israeli tilt.
• Israel’s threat – Now that Israeli-Saudi normalisation is not happening and Israel’s unchecked militarism poses security threats to Gulf kingdoms, Saudi Arabia seems to have overlooked India’s concerns by formalising the defence pact with Pakistan.
• Saudi’s hidden message - If India can have a pro-Israel tilt, Riyadh can have a pro-Pakistan tilt is what the Saudis seem to be conveying.
• Less attention for India – As Arab monarchies diversify their alliances, they may be less sensitive to India’s concerns.
• Could reduce India’s dominance – If Pakistan successfully positions itself as a credible security provider to the Gulf, India’s influence in the region could come under question.

What lies ahead?

• New Delhi must reckon with the broader structural shift that U.S. dominance in West Asia is no longer assured.
• Regional powers are recalibrating, and security arrangements once taken for granted are being reconfigured.
• India’s interests ensuring energy security, protecting its diaspora, and preventing extremist spillovers are best served by stability and balance in the Gulf.
• New Delhi’s best course lies in maintaining balance deepening economic and political ties with Riyadh, while continuing to engage with other Gulf states, Iran, and beyond

Reference

The Hindu| Saudi – Pakistan Military Pact