Future Burden - Cancer Mortality in India

Why in news?

A recent disease-forecasting study projects deaths due to pancreatic, colorectal and breast cancers to rise by 2030 in India.

• Objectives – To project the future burden of cancer mortality in India for 23 major cancer types up to the year 2030.
• It provides the first comprehensive, long-range forecast of age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR).

Standardized Mortality Rate is a measure used to compare the death rates of a population to a reference population, adjusted for factors like age and sex.

• Method – Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has a greater ability for prediction and applicability for cancer forecasting in the country.
• Data source – Aggregated, national-level cancer mortality data for the population of India from 2000 to 2019 were used from Global Cancer Observatory (GCO)’s ‘Cancer Over Time’ database.

India was found to see a jump of 26.4 % in cancer rates between 1990-2023 - among the highest in the world.

Findings of the study

• Associated factors – The study found that there is a clear shift towards cancers associated with lifestyle and economic development.
• Found that a rise in cancers linked to lifestyle and metabolic factors and a decline in infection-related and tobacco-related cancers in India.
• Increasing trend in Mortality rates –
  • Among males – Colorectal cancer & pancreatic cancer increased by 29.49% and 67.81% respectively, between 2000 and 2025, and expected to increase by 6.55% and 9.59% respectively, from 2025 to 2030.
  • Among females – Breast cancer is expected to have the highest increase from 2025 to 2030, followed by lung, colorectal cancer, pancreas, ovary, kidney, and lymphomas.
• Dipping projections – Among both genders - Mouth & oropharynx cancers, urinary bladder cancer mortality is projected to decrease between 2000 and 2030.
• It attributed to the reduction in tobacco use and household air pollution.
• Prevention –
  • Improving early detection through expanded screening programmes (such as mammography and colonoscopy);
  • Improving diagnostic infrastructure in rural and underserved regions are essential;
  • Increased public awareness; and
  • Improved lifestyle interventions like healthier diets, physical activity, and reduce tobacco and alcohol consumption.

References

1. The Hindu | Future burden of 23 major cancer types
2. BMJ Journal | Burden of cancer mortality in India