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Challenges to Peace in the “Horn of Africa”

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July 28, 2018

What is the issue?

  • Resolution of the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict brings hope for stability and development in the region.
  • But there are credible political challenges in both the countries that need to be sorted out to further the peace initiative.

What is the context of the conflict?

  • Eritrea was a region in Ethiopia that seceded from it in 1993 after a prolonged violent guerrilla war.
  • Both have since been independent countries that lie in close proximity to the Red Sea in the Horn of Africa.

          

  • They were engaged in a conflict for territorial control over the economically insignificant border town of Badme since the late 1990s.
  • A peace agreement signed by the two countries in December 2000 and a subsequent border commission awarded Badme to Eritrea.
  • But Ethiopia refused to honour the pact and continued to exercise control over Badme by treating it as part of its own territory.
  • This resulted in a prolonged standoff between the two countries for almost 2 decades and claimed more than 50,000 lives.

What is the political situation in Ethiopia?

  • Positives - The decision to honour the terms of the peace accord is credited to Ethiopia’s current popularly elected Prime Minister “Abiy Ahmed”.
  • The Eritrean outreach is one of the many democratic reforms that Mr. Ahmed has unleashed since assuming office a few months ago.
  • Significantly, he lifted the emergency, released many political prisoners, and delisted some opposition parties that were classified as terrorists.
  • Challenges - Nonetheless, rumblings in the ruling “Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front” is posing problems to the government.
  • Traditional tensions between the country’s ethnic Oromo majority and the politically dominant Tigrayan minority are playing out as always.
  • Notably, Mr. Ahmed (who is an Oromo) was strategically chosen to ease the churn and ensure a better political balance in the country.
  • Unless managed tactfully, these internal tensions within the governing coalition could impede the peace process.

What is the political situation in Eritrea?

  • History - Eritrea is ruled by an autocratic president Isaias Afwerki, who rose from through the country’s secessionist guerrilla war with the Ethiopia.
  • He has been at the helm since independence by resisting elections and even failed to even honour the 1997 constitution.
  • Notably, Ethiopian aggression also provided strong grounds for Eritrean masses to fall in line with the dictates of its dictatorial ruler.
  • Oppression - Mr. Isaias used the conflict as a pretext to expand his army and suppress dissent with force, thereby triggering a socio-political crisis.
  • This led to mass exodus of people from Eritrea, who has sought refuge in Europe and other countries.
  • Future - The end of hostilities could mean a diminishing role for the military and a loosening of President Afwerki’s grip over the state apparatus.
  • This could open up a Pandora’s Box in Eritrea and the resulting power struggle needs to be managed well to avoid a violent conflict.

What is the way ahead?

  • Restoration of peace and democracy is an urgent priority in both countries, which are among the poorest in the world.
  • Peace will allow landlocked Ethiopia to access Eritrean ports, and tie the two countries into greater economic cooperation.
  • Greater political accountability at home is a prerequisite for stability across the borders, which demands both sides to display better political wisdom.
  • The international community must also step up to engage Ethiopia and Eritrea on fairer terms than it has during the course of the bitter conflict.
  • Notably, Ethiopia and Eritrea are strategically located, both as gateways for global trade and for counter-terrorism operations.

 

Source: The Hindu

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