Arab Spring 2.0 - Protests in Algeria and Sudan

What is the issue?

The recent protests in Algeria and Sudan have entered a critical phase in which protesters and militaries are at a stand-off.
With this, there is a possibility that protests could move to other Arab countries as well, resembling the earlier Arab spring.

What was the Arab Spring?

Arab spring refers to a series of uprisings in the countries of the Arab region in 2011, leading to the ousting of several dictators.
Protests broke out in Tunisia in late 2010 and spread to other countries including Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Bahrain and Syria.
There were hopes that the Arab world was in for massive changes and expectations that the old autocracies would be replaced with new democracies.

But Tunisia was the only country where the revolutionaries outwitted the counter-revolutionaries.

They overthrew Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s dictatorship, and the country transitioned to a multi-party democracy.
Except Tunisia, the country-specific stories of the Arab uprising were largely tragic.

What led to the Arab spring?

The Arab uprising was originally triggered by a combination of factors.
The rulers had been in power for decades, and there was popular longing for freedom from their repressive regimes.
Also, the economic model based on patronage was crumbling in those countries.
The key driving force behind the protests was a pan-Arabist anger against the old system.
So, though the revolutionaries' targets were their respective national governments, the protests were transnational in nature.
This is the very reason why the spirit spread quickly from Tunis to Cairo, Benghazi and Manama.

Is Arab Spring 2.0 in the making?

The negative impact due to repressions after the Arab Spring did not kill the revolutionary spirit of the Arab youth.
This is now being showcased in the protests in Sudan and Algeria with similar anti-government demonstrations.
Algeria, whose economy is heavily dependent on the hydrocarbon sector, took a hit after the post-2014 commodity meltdown.
GDP growth slowed from 4% in 2014 to 1.6% in 2017, and youth unemployment soared to 29%.
This economic downturn was happening when Mr. Bouteflika was missing from public engagement, after being paralysed by stroke in 2013.
But when he announced candidacy for this year’s presidential election, seeking another five-year term, it infuriated the public.
In a matter of days, protests spread across the country, which culminated in his resignation on April 2, 2019.
Sudan is also battling a serious economic crisis leading to protests. Click here to know more on Sudan's case.
Protesters in both countries demanded regime change, like their comrades in Egypt and Tunisia did in 2011.
So both Abdelaziz Bouteflika and Omar al-Bashir who had ruled Algeria for 20 years and Sudan for 3 decades respectively had to quit.
This has revived memories of the Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings earlier, suggesting an Arab Spring 2.0.
Like in the case of 2010-11, the 2018-19 protests are also transnational.
They spread from Amman (Jordan) to Khartoum (Sudan) and Algiers (Algeria) in a matter of months.

What are the key driving factors now?

The pan-Arabist anger against national governments remains the main driving force behind the protests.
Old order - Most Arab economies are now beset with economic woes.
The rentier system Arab monarchs and dictators built is in a bad shape.
Arab rulers for years bought loyalty of the masses in return for patronage, which was then granted by the fear factor.
But this model is no more viable.
Oil prices - Having touched $140 a barrel in 2008, the price of oil collapsed to $30 in 2016.
This impacted both oil-producing and oil-importing countries.
Producers, reeling under the price fall, had cut spending; both public spending and aid for other Arab countries.
The aid that non-oil-producing Arab economies such as Jordan and Egypt were dependent on started to dry up.
In May 2018, there were massive protests in Jordan against a proposed tax law and rising fuel prices.
Demonstrators left the streets only after Prime Minister Hani Mulki resigned.
His successor had to withdraw the legislation and King Abdullah II made an intervention to freeze the price hike.

What keeps the revolutions from succeeding?

In all these countries, the counter-revolutionary forces are so strong.
So protesters often stop short of achieving their main goal of putting an end to the old order.
Revolutionaries manage to get rid of the dictators, but the system they built survives somehow and sometimes in a moral brutal fashion.
A key counter-revolutionary factor is the guardians of the old system, either the monarchy or the army.
E.g. After the 2011 protests, in Egypt, the army made a comeback
It further tightened its grip on the state and society through violence and repression.
In Jordan, the monarch always acts as a bulwark against revolutionary tendencies.
The second counter-revolutionary factor is the geopolitical actors.
E.g. In Libya, the foreign intervention removed Muammar Qaddafi, but the war destroyed the Libyan state and institutions
It ultimately left the country in the hands of competing militias and is yet to recover from the anarchy triggered by the intervention.
In Syria too, with foreign intervention, the protests first turned into an armed civil war.
Soon, the country itself became a theatre of wars for global players.
In Yemen, protests turned into a sectarian civil conflict, with foreign powers taking different sides.
In Bahrain, Saudi Arabia made a direct military intervention, on behalf of its rulers, to violently end the protests in Manama’s Pearl Square.

How does the future look?

Similar counter-revolutionary factors now play at Algeria and Sudan as well.
In Khartoum, protesters are demanding an immediate handover of power to a civilian government.
But in both countries, the army let the Presidents fall, but retained its grip on power, despite pressure from protesters.
They clearly do not seem to be bringing in a regime change.
Sudan faces the heat of geopolitical intervention as well.
As soon as the military council directly took power, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Egypt offered support to the military.
It is to be seen if the mass movements meet their revolutionary goals.

Source: The Hindu