North Korea's Denuclearisation

What is the issue?

North Korea's upcoming meet with the US is expected to give a shape to its denuclearisation plan.

With its effort to gain the trust of world nations and remove the sanctions, a look at the means and probabilities become essential.

What is the recent meet on?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in met for the first time recently.
They have pledged to ensure peace, prosperity and unification of the Korean peninsula.
North Korea has already pledged to close one of its nuclear test sites.

What is the complexity?

Differences between the two leaders on the question of denuclearisation are evident.
South Korea emphasised that complete denuclearisation was essential for peace.
However, North Korea did not make its stance clear on this front.
There was a clear indication of the need for equality between the two, during the talks.
However, this equality is hard to be materialised in terms of nuclear security in the short term.

How have denuclearisations been?

Denuclearisation is a key to the whole process, as it means different things to different people.
For the U.S., the models are Iraq, Libya and the former republics of the Soviet Union.
They all surrendered their nuclear assets in return for peace and normalisation.
But North Korea seems to be opting for a different model.

What is North Korea's possible plan?

Recognition - It much resembles the Indian model nuclear deal.
Under this, it gets recognised as a “technologically advanced responsible state”.
On the basis of this, it in turn gets certain strategic assurances.
It is an effort to legitimise the nuclear arsenal and earn recognition as a responsible state.

Credibility - India arrived at the nuclear deal with the US by pointing to the direct nuclear threat from China and in turn from Pakistan.
Mr. Kim has gone further by suspending all missile tests and taking steps to shut down a nuclear test site.
This is much in line with earlier US 's demand to India to sign the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty to avoid sanctions.
Relations with US - Kim is also likely to use the Indian model to bargain for normal relations with the U.S.
This may be on the basis of guarantees such as:

Why is this model uncertain for North Korea?

Trust and confidence in India as a responsible state and various other factors were behind the historic nuclear deal.
Unlike India, the track followed by the earlier North Korean leaders and the present one appeared in disorder.
This is ever since North Korea sought to leave the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) regime.
The posture was of threat and arrogance rather than peace or reconciliation.
It is now inclined to negotiate its way into removing sanctions and shaping its future.

But the U.S. would be far more reluctant to make any concessions to North Korea without an agreement on denuclearisation.
The forthcoming negotiations will prove whether the Indian model will help North Korea in restoring peace.
Some amount of domestic reform at home, in terms of civil liberties, would help North Korea make its case better.

Source: The Hindu