A year after Galwan - India-China Relations

What is the issue?

• On June 15, 2020, the Line of Actual Control (LAC) witnessed its first deaths after 1975, in a violent clash with China in Galwan in Ladakh.
• After an year, here is an assessment of the military and geopolitical situation.

What is the current situation?

• Militarily, the current situation in Ladakh is not bad.
• There is a continued deployment of 50,000-60,000 soldiers.
• With this, the Indian Army has been able to hold the line to prevent any further ingress by the China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
• The Chinese presence on the Indian side of the LAC in Gogra, Hot Springs and Demchok gives the PLA some tactical advantage.
• But the area which majorly jolts Indian military plans is the Chinese control of Depsang Plains.

What are the shortcomings in India's approach?

• Militarily, Chinese incursions in Ladakh have shown that the idea of deterrence has failed.
• Many retired military officers feel that the Indian Army had only weakened its negotiating position during the talks with the PLA.
• In any case, there has been no progress in talks after the disengagement at Pangong lake and Kailash range in February 2021.
• There is no record of the Cabinet Committee on Security being convened to discuss the Ladakh border situation.
• No official briefing or press conference about the situation in Ladakh has taken place in the last 13 months since the Ladakh crisis.
• The official excuse was operational security, but the actual reason was to avoid political embarrassment for the government in power.
• This is because PLA soldiers remain in control of what was hitherto in Indian control.

What is the recent policy in this regard?

• Defence Minister recently approved a revised policy on how India compiles, archives and disseminates its war documents and related history.
• As per the new policy, once an operation/war is completed, the first cut of history is to be prepared.
• It will be disseminated for internal circulation within 5 years.
• Whether this first draft of history is to be placed in the public domain or not, will be determined on a case by case basis.
• It will depend on the sensitivity of the operation/war.
• [Predictably, the Henderson Brooks-Bhagat report relating to the 1962 war with China, which is still under wraps, will not be part of the new policy.
• Apparently, another committee will take a view on previous wars.]

How does the future look?

• A return to the status quo ante of April 2020 in Ladakh remains a far from reality.
• The Chinese side refuses to engage meaningfully.
• India argues that there could be no normalcy without restoration of status quo ante at the borders.
• With the widening power gap between New Delhi and Beijing, the challenge is as much economic as it is geopolitical.

• A new reset in bilateral ties is difficult because China is now in a different league, competing with the U.S.
• India will never be comfortable taking sides in a new Cold War between the U.S. and China.
• Beijing seems as keen as New Delhi to avoid a military conflict, though accidents such as Galwan can never be ruled out.
• India thus has to live with this tense and uneasy calm with China for some time, a challenge brought to the fore by the Ladakh crisis.
• The Ladakh crisis has also led India to relook external partnerships, particularly with the United States.
• The military importance of the Quad remains arguable.
• The choices made in New Delhi will have a significant impact on the future of global geopolitics.

What is the way forward?

• The Galwan anniversary should encourage the Indian government to set up an independent panel of experts.
• This should review the institutional lapses that led to an altered LoAC (Line of Actual Control) in the Ladakh sector.

Source: The Hindu, The Indian Express