Why in news?
The United Nations recently released the ‘World Population Projections 2019' report.
What are the highlights?
- World population - The report projects the world population to reach some 9.7 billion by 2050.
- However, it says that the overall growth rate will continue to fall.
- The next 30 years will see the population add 2 billion people to today’s 7.7 billion.
- The world population will reach 11 billion by the end of the century.
- Half of the projected increase in the global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just 9 countries.
- This is led by India and followed by Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the US.
- Many of the fastest growing populations are in the poorest countries.
- Here, population growth brings additional challenges in the form of poverty, equality, hunger and malnutrition, low education, etc.
- Fertility rates–The fertility rates are falling worldwide.
- The average number of births per woman globally, from 3.2 in 1990, fell to 2.5 by 2019.
- This is now projected to fall further to 2.2 births by 2050.
- To avoid decline in a national population, a fertility level of 2.1 births per woman is necessary (in the absence of immigration).
- Age composition - In 2018, for the first time, persons aged 65 years or over worldwide outnumbered children under age five.
- Projections indicate that by 2050, there will be more than twice as many persons above 65 as children under five.
- By 2050, one in six people in the world will be over age 65 (16%), up from one in 11 in 2019 (9%).
- By 2050, the number of persons aged 65 or over will also surpass the number of adolescents and youth aged 15-24.
- The number of persons aged 80 years or over is projected to triple, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050.
- Life expectancy - The overall life expectancy will increase from 64.2 years in 1990 to 77.1 years in 2050.
- However, life expectancy in poorer countries is projected to continue to lag behind.
- Today, the average lifespan of a baby born in one of the least developed countries will be some 7 years shorter than one born in a developed country.
- The main reasons cited are high child and maternal mortality rates, conflict and insecurity, and the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic.
- Dwindling populations - The populations of 55 countries are projected to decrease by 1% or more between 2019 and 2050.
- The largest relative reductions in population size (loss of around 20% or more) over this period are expected in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, and the Wallis and Futuna Islands.
- The key reasons are sustained low levels of fertility, and, in some places, high rates of emigration.
- Migration - Migration flows have become a major reason for population change in certain regions.
- Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines are seeing the largest migratory outflows resulting from the demand for migrant workers.
- Myanmar, Syria and Venezuela are the countries where the largest numbers are leaving because of insecurity or conflict.
- Sex ratio - Males are projected to continue to outnumber females until the end of the century, but the gap will close eventually.
How will India’s population be?
- China, with 1.43 billion people in 2019, and India, with 1.37 billion, have long been the two most populous countries of the world.
- China and India comprise 19 and 18%, respectively, of the global total population in 2019. They are followed by the USA.
- India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country in the next 8 years i.e. by around 2027.
- India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between 2019 and 2050.
- It will remain the most populated country through the end of the current century.
- Together, the population of India and Nigeria (projected to grow by 200 million) could account for 23% of the global population increase to 2050.
- Over-65 population - In India, children under age five still outnumber the over-65 population.
- But the over-65 population is projected to overtake the under-five group between 2025 and 2030.
- By 2050, persons over age 65 will make up about one-seventh of India’s population.
- By then, the 15-24 years age group in India (13.8%), too, will outnumber the over-65 group (13.6%).
- So, children under age five are projected to constitute less than 6% of India’s population in 2050, as compared to 7% globally.
Source: Indian Express, India Today
Related News: World Population 2019 Report - UNFPA
