Increase in Working-age Population

What is the issue?

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) carried out population projections up to the year 2061.
With trends showing working age population in India rising till 2040, there is an urgent need for creating enough jobs.

How is the population growth scenario?

Population is growing, but rather on a slow pace.
The 2011 Census revealed a notable reduction in the population growth rate.
The percentage decennial growth during 2001-2011 registered the sharpest decline since Independence.
For 2001-2011, the decennial growth was 17.64% which is a decrease of 3.9 percentage points from the period 1991-2001.

What does this imply?

The percentage decline in population growth certainly implies that India has entered a low fertility era.
The national Total Fertility Rate (TFR) [the average number of children born per woman] is 2.3.
But the TFR in all states in India, except 7 States, has fallen below 2.1 which is the replacement level of fertility.
[Replacement level of fertility is the TFR at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration i.e. the TFR needed to keep the population the same from generation to generation.]
Moreover, in the 7 high fertility States too, the pace of fertility decline is fast and may soon fall below replacement level.

Will population stop growing immediately thereafter?

Though the fertility has declined and will keep declining further, the population will keep growing for some more years.
This is due to a phenomenon called ‘population momentum’.
As per the population projections by UNFPA, the peak population in India is expected to be 1,657 million (or 166 crore) around the year 2060.
It is only after reaching this, that population growth is expected to start declining, however only slowly.

What is the working age population scenario?

The increase in working age population (15-59 years) has been and will be higher in the near future and less and less in later years.
Notably, India will add around 487 million people to its population between 2001 and 2031.
There will be very little increase after that, with just 151 million in the next 30 years.
However, during 2001-31, around 80% of the total population growth will get translated into increase in working-age population.
Almost 390 million additional people will get added in the working-age category, which will reach a billion plus by mid-2040s.
But after that it will start declining.
Notably, after 2021 itself, the pressure will ease a bit, with 92 million joining during 2021-31 and 50 million during 2031-41.
After that there will be no incremental addition to the working-age population.

What is the implication?

The first decade of this century, 2001-11, saw addition of 150 million persons in the working-age population.
But the number of jobs created during this period was low, resulting in unemployment or underemployment for several million people.
Again in 2011-2021 decade, another 150 or so million people are getting added to the working-age population.
This means that India would have to create 15 million work opportunities for these people every year.
On top of this, there is a backlog from the first decade of this century.

What should be done?

In all, population dynamics perspective needs to be incorporated in policy-making and programme planning.
This is especially significant in the context of skills development and employment generation programmes.
The needs of skilling of the young people especially will be different in different time periods and should be planned for accordingly.
It is important that similar population analysis is undertaken at the State level for offering better employment opportunities.

Source: BusinessLine

Quick Fact

UNFPA

UNFPA is the United Nations sexual and reproductive health agency.
Its mission is to deliver a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe and every young person's potential is fulfilled.
UNFPA calls for the realization of reproductive rights for all.
It thus supports access to a wide range of sexual and reproductive health services including voluntary family planning, maternal health care and comprehensive sexuality education.