What is the issue?
While an anti-Chinese alliance is taking shape in the Indo-Pacific, it is not easy to sustain it in the prevailing circumstances.
What is the international context?
- U.S. President Trump believes in a world governed by self-interest, with little room for shared responsibility.
- In contrast, Chinese President Xi is taking the high road, is projecting himself as a firm believer in globalisation and free trade.
- Notably, the former confronts major opposition to his policies within the U.S, while the latter’s grip on China is almost total.
- Against this backdrop, a coalition of all those willing to align with the U.S. against China’s expanding ambitions is shaping up.
What are the recent developments?
- Official level talks were held recently, between the U.S., Japan, Australia & India for establishing the “Quadrilateral Alliance”.
- This marks a major shift in India’s foreign policy, as it is an active alignment to an emergent power block.
- As China’s expansionist attitudes intensify, more countries are expected to align with the Quadrilateral group.
- Notably, this is the first time that India has indicated a resolve to align openly with the U.S. to tackle issues specific to Indo-Pacific.
- This enhances the Indo-US cooperation as major defence partners.
What is China’s Position?
- Political - China too seems eager to fight the challenges of a counter-alliance.
- The Communist Party Congress emphasised on a strong military, signalling little willingness for compromise.
- It also reinforced Mr. Xi’s paramount leadership and clearly elaborated on China’s ambitions for global leadership.
- Notably, Mr.Xi adopted a hard line on many contentious issues in the region and beyond, reiterating an aggressive foreign policy.
- Economic Might - China is positioned most advantageously as far as economic aspects are concerned.
- It is the most important trading partner for over 90 countries and a massive economic power house.
- Although the economic benefits of its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) are disputed, it has definitely got a favoured reception by most countries.
What are the challenges for the alliance?
- Most Asian nations don’t actually have an unfavourable opinion on China despite its reckless foreign policy.
- China has embarked on a charm offensive to win the support of Asian nations through lavish aid offers.
- Even Mr.Trump, seemed to have softened his criticism of China, after China produced some attractive mega deals.
- Only India, Japan & Vietnam have shown some willing to build an opposition to China’s designs.
- Also, nations in the quadrilateral alliance haven’t stated a clear vision and gave separate press releases that were vastly divergent.
- The opinions varied form ‘joint security patrol’ to ‘funding mechanism to counter BRI’.
How does the future look?
- The Quadrilateral idea is likely to further irk China.
- As developments become clearer with the formal setting up of the Quadrilateral, China is certain to counter it proactively.
- This will pave the way for a new round of turmoil and China would use both force and inducements to win more countries to its side.
- The consequences of this could be quite significant for peace and stability in the Asian region.
Source: The Hindu
