What is the issue?
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of an exceptionally hot summer this year. Click here to know more.
- This calls for advance planning to mitigate its adverse consequences.
What are the predictions of IMD?
- Maximum temperature in most parts of the country is projected to remain over 1 degree Celsius above normal.
- Frequent and relatively more intense heat waves are expected between March and May.
- There are signs of a moderate La Nina condition (deemed favourable for the monsoon.
- However, the IMD has refrained from drawing any conclusion about its impact on the coming monsoon.
- This is perhaps because it is likely to start weakening from May-end, prior to the onset of the monsoon.
- Even if the moderate La Nina leads to good rainfall, the relief will accrue only in the rainy season.
- It is less likely to help in the pre-monsoon dry season, when it is needed the most.
What are the implications for India?
- If IMD’s forecast holds true, it will be the third consecutive year of unbearably hot summers.
- Notably, India witnessed back-to-back droughts in 2014 and 2015.
- In fact, the temperatures have already begun to shoot up, hovering around 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal in several regions.
- The total water stock of the 91 main dams monitored by the Central Water Commission is now short of last year’s corresponding level and below average.
- Moreover, the total winter rainfall has been deficient by as much as 64% in the country as a whole.
- The deficiency is 67% in the key north-western agricultural belt.
What are the concerns with harsher summers?
- Excessive heat can have wide-ranging consequences, costing the economy dearly.
- It can lower the crop yields.
- Especially, that of wheat which is highly sensitive to a premature spike in temperature in March.
- Harsh summers would deplete water resources, which are already stressed due to poor winter rainfall.
- It would affect power availability by pushing up demand and curtailing hydel power production.
- Besides, it could depress milk yield of cattle.
- It could also threaten human health, causing heat-induced illnesses and death.
- Labour productivity, too, tends to dwindle during acute summers.
What action plans need to be taken?
- Area-specific action plans are, therefore, imperative to combat heat-related contingencies.
- Ahmedabad had prepared a “heat action plan” in 2010 when a 47-degree Celsius heat wave had taken 700 lives.
- Implementation of this plan helped restrict casualties to 20, under similar conditions in 2015.
- Civic authorities in other states could take a cue from such measures.
- Putting up drinking water kiosks in public places, setting up day shelters, changing school timings, etc are some of them.
- Water release from reservoirs need to be rescheduled to facilitate its judicious and economical use.
- The work timings of labour, too, can be readjusted to provide longer breaks during blazing afternoons.
- The science of genetic engineering can help prepare Indian agriculture to face unkind summers, without any significant erosion in productivity.
Source: Business Standard
